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New Bloom Festival is out!

Update: Microplushies blindbox and Lockless Luckbox revisit Update

Added microplush update price list to bottom

Update: RPS reports that the $38,000 USD flaming pink puppy has lost almost 90% of its value to $4000

Seen the DK v Alliance matches? Or the Korean Dota 2 Cosplayers?

Breaking News: PAADA just sold his ethereal flames wardog for $38,000!

Update post diretide: After the Diretide patch that has introduced socketing and crafting, (perhaps making the pink puppy swing in price) the lockless luckbox have tanked and became the luckless lockbox at $40 from its above $100 golden days. This may in part be due to the craftable genuines items, that will give you the same item except without the green genuine tag. Nyx dagon has fallen to $50, Heaven Piercing Pauldrons at $70 shadow blade to $100 (time of writing). For some items, there isn’t much difference between genuine and non genuine in price. Recipes go for quite a bit too. Is this Valve’s way of cooling the market? Guess the original caution below was useful! Don’t think this is insider trading happening in Valve markets, since microplush ball flood would have changed prices too.

PSA reminder: markets have moved, don’t take figures here to be indicative, do your own due diligence. it has been brought to my attention the brewmaster tshirt is back in stock and is moving at a much slower pace off the valve shelves than previously, lockless luckbox prices have also come down with nyx dagon coming down even more (i think it was at low 100s coming off its around 200 high) open your eyes before dipping into the waters! don’t get swept away or carried away betting more than you can afford to lose
you may be locked into the lockless luckbox until brewmaster supply dries up, which it may not, turning it into a luckless lockbox

you may also want to take a look at: 10 days to solve 10 year old HIV Puzzle? No Problem for Gamers!

The lockless luckbox is an item that is provided with real life merchandise from steam, and can be opened up in game to give you an item (like the steelseries mouse and kantusa). It goes for about $110 on the steam market, but is technically obtainable for about $10. Why then do people pay so much? I keep thinking of it as the luckless lockbox, just juxtaposing the o and the u around.

lockless luckbox

lockless lockbox 110

At this point, there are a few items that gives the lockless luckbox from the steam store, in varying states of availability as well as various prices. It ranges from the Valve Plush Balls (pokeballs) at about $9.90 to $29.90 T Shirt and $49.90 Polo Ts and $79.99 Trackjacket. Generally once they restock they will be sold out fast as people buy them from the lockbox. Previously, they first appeared at the Seattle shop during the international, where people naturally swooped in onto them for the exclusivity.

Tshirts: BREWMASTER PRIMAL SPLIT STOUT T-SHIRT,

Polo Ts: Dota 2 Emblem Polo shirt, Dolfrat and Roshinante Polo Shirt,

Track Jacket: Custom Track Jacket for The International.

The contents are all worth quite a bit, and can be priced into tiers. I will use the dota2wiki as the reference for the loot drop contents, and assume that drop rates are even. (They should all be classed as genuine mythical, green)

Tier 3, for those below $100 i.e. you don’t want to get one of these if you bought a $100 luckless lockbox from the steam market: Broken Shackles (market) and Prisoner’s Anchor (market) for alchemist, Aether Wings (market) for Puck also obtainable via the Puck T shirt, Frost Owl Beacon (market) for Crystal Maiden, Crest of the Wyrm Lords (market) for Dragon Knight, Armlet of Mordiggan (market) for Chaos Knight and Crown of the Death Priestess (market) for DP.

genuinebrokenshackles

genuineprisoneranchor

genuineaetherwings

frostowlbeacon

genuinecrestwyrmlorddk

 

armletmordigganck

 

crown dp

They range about $50 to $80, so if you bought the plush balls, tshirts and up to the polo Ts its about okay. You will lose a bit due to the steam taxes, but you get a shirt or a micro plushie to hug. (Or you could sell the lockbox for $100). Getting the shackles would probably make it a luckless lockbox if you had purchased it from the market however. The Dragon Knight shield and the Alchemist anchor approaches the top end at about $80 to $90. Previously the DK shield looked uglier. The prices weren’t always like this too, with Aether wings in more prosperous times above $150.

aether history

Tier 2, Above $100, we get only one entry for this: Heaven Piercing Pauldrons (market) for Invoker

heavenpiercingpauldrons

This is an item I really don’t get, as its fetching a very high price of $160 when it doesn’t have any spell changes. You just get pointier shoulders… or perhaps that’s the point. Maybe it /pokes the heavens, or icefrog

People’s gonna pay what they wanna pay I guess, payers will be payers (alternatively, it could be a low drop rate)

Tier 1, Around $200: Nyx Assassin’s Dagon and Kunkka’s Shadow Blade.

We now move on to the heavy hitters of the luckless lockbox set. These make the luck in the luckbox.

The sheer $$$ of the nyx dagon is summed up by the video

965

On top of Dagon humiliation (refer to nerfnow), it’s also a $190 Dagon slap

 

nyxdagonprice

Zap–$190 or prevailing market price

Not pleasant.

It’s a different story if you’re the one who opened your lockless luckbox and got a nyx dagon though! You’re now rich! Richer that is. Sort of. You could sell it, or start playing Nyx Assassin. Either way you sort of get your moneys worth. I suppose it could be rich saudi arabian princes who sweep up the dagons on the market and go around pub games zapping people.

Or you could go for Kunkka if you have his shadow blade.

Kunkka wields a shadowblade dripping with purple fluids

No gif at the dota wiki, but they have closeups: http://dota2.gamepedia.com/Kunkka%27s_Shadow_Blade

At its peak it fetched a princely sum of $310.13. (its a bit higher than it would be due to taxes, which would be $270)

shadowblade300bucks

It tried to pierce the ceiling of 300 bucks and it did. Today it goes for a slightly more terrestial price of $250.

kunkkashadowbladeprice

I guess time and tide waits for no admiral!

And that’s that for the luckless lockboxes, if all drop rates are equal, it comes to about $102.50 roughly as the price value per luckless lockbox. Its probably quite the deal or steal if you can get the physical dota items with a digital item unlock lockless luckbox. If you’re buying it off the market above $100++ however, I suppose the question to ask is “do you feel lucky?”

Breaking News: PAADA just sold his ethereal flames wardog for $38,000!

Update, luckless lockbox has fell even further to $60+, probably due to rumors of huge stock of micro plushies (valve pokeballs) on their way. Those would be about $10 unless prices are increased.

locklessluckbox

There is also another similar rise and fall chart in the arc of manta as well as Tesla

The prices in the old guide is outdated, but the graphs aren’t very helpful now with the new landscape. (you can make non genuine versions from recipes)

Old Price, New Price

$50, $8

Broken Shackles (market) and

$80, $10

Prisoner’s Anchor (market) for alchemist

$53, $22

Aether Wings (market) for Puck also obtainable via the Puck T shirt,

$63, $16

Frost Owl Beacon (market) for Crystal Maiden,

$87, $15

Crest of the Wyrm Lords (market) for Dragon Knight,

$55, $8

Armlet of Mordiggan (market) for Chaos Knight

$46, $6

Crown of the Death Priestess (market) for DP.

$160, $32

Heaven Piercing Pauldrons (market) for Invoker

$190, $24

Nyx Dagon (market price)

$250, $50

Kunkka Shadow Blade (market price)

Estimate average: 50+24+32+6+8+15+16+22+10+8/10 = 19.1 USD, pretty close enough to the lockbox price. But it does mean if the lockbox is higher you might just want to sell the lockbox.

So most of the items go down by about a factor of 5, but not necessarily proportionately. Nyx Dagon went down an amazing amount, compared to the Kunkka Shadow Blade, or Invoker Heaven Piercing Pauldrons.

You can see how the new tiers and crafts have changed the landscape for genuines.

different dagons

For more, you can look at the update: Microplushies and Lockless Luckbox revisit Update

 

 

Seen the DK v Alliance matches? Or the Korean Dota 2 Cosplayers?

You may also want to take a look at: 10 days to solve 10 year old HIV Puzzle? No Problem for Gamers!

Want to take a look at the Top 7 Incredibly Valuable Game Items, where Diablo 3 pays for an engagement ring?

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